The peak season of resuming production is coming! Coking coal hit a new high in nearly 3 months [institutional review]

Coking coal futures rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting a three-month high. In terms of domestic coal, the protection and supply of domestic coal is relatively strong this year, and large state-owned mines in Shanxi have resumed production one after another, and the pace of resumption is expected to be faster than in previous years.

South China Futures: coking coal rises greatly under the influence of thermal coal, but the fundamentals are not as good as thermal coal.

Yesterday, Shanxi Liulin low-sulfur main coking coal reported 2680 yuan / ton and the same as the day before yesterday, Anze low-sulfur main coking coal reported 2500 yuan / ton down 320 yuan / ton. During the day, the disk coking coal is strong and fluctuating, and the night market is up 6%, mainly due to the influence of thermal coal. The fundamentals of coking coal itself are not very good, and the market is more bearish. Anze coking coal fell 320 yuan / ton yesterday.

On the supply side, in terms of domestic coal, the protection of supply is relatively strong this year. Large state-owned mines in Shanxi have resumed production one after another, and the pace of resuming production is expected to be faster than in previous years. In terms of imported coal, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal in January is about 91 vehicles, which belongs to a low level, with only 21 vehicles passing through customs on February 5. However, the epidemic situation in Mongolia has improved significantly recently, and the number of follow-up customs clearance vehicles is expected to increase gradually. On the demand side, due to the holding of the Winter Olympic Games, the coking plant has made great efforts to limit production, and Shandong and Shanxi have limited production news. In addition, coke began the second round of lifting and lowering today. At present, coking profits are on the low side, forcing coking coal prices to decline. Overall, supply is strong and demand is weak, which is strongly affected by thermal coal sentiment in the short term, but it may be weak and volatile throughout February.

From a medium-term point of view (second quarter), the Australian coal gap + resumption season may support coking coal prices to rise again.

Guangfa Futures: coking coal is still driven, and bargain-hunting is the main test.

As of February 7, CCI Shanxi low sulfur index 2575 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton; CCI Shanxi high sulfur index 2323 yuan / ton, week-to-month ratio flat, Lingshi fat coal index 2350 yuan / ton, week-to-cycle ratio flat, Puxian 1amp 3 coke index 2000 yuan / ton, week-to-cycle ratio unchanged.

The progress of resuming production of coking coal in the main producing area after the festival is relatively fast, the actual shutdown time of some coal mines is shorter than that planned before, and the supply of coking coal after the festival is relatively guaranteed. In addition, during the Spring Festival, the logistics is not smooth and the downstream coke enterprises are bearish about the negative purchase in the future, and the coal mine inventory accumulates in different degrees.

As of Feb. 7, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.3%, unchanged from the previous month, and the average daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 466000 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The output of the whole sample coking plant was 611000 tons, down 29000 tons from the previous month. Under the influence of the Winter Olympic Games, 30-50% of the coke enterprises in southern Shanxi and Shandong regions started work under the influence of environmental protection, while some coke enterprises in other regions actively limited production under the pressure of storage.

As of Feb. 7, the inventory of coking coal of all sample independent coking enterprises was 14.796 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.107 million tons. The stock of coking coal produced by 247 steel mills was 10.756 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 142000 tons.

Due to the postponement of the carbon peak and the sharp upward impact of power coal, coking coal rose sharply at night. In the future, on the one hand, imported coking coal will drop sharply after the port of Australia is exhausted in February, on the other hand, the supply of coking coal may continue to be tight after the blast furnace resumes production, and it is still possible for coking coal to rise in the future. It is suggested that coking coal should be tested at every low price.

Dayue Futures: affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the supply of some coal mines in many places has been slightly reduced.

Fundamentals: affected by the Spring Festival holiday, some coal mines in many places are on holiday, and the market supply is slightly reduced, but the demand for raw coal in the downstream market is weak, coal production resumes one after another after the festival, and individual types of coal in some coal mines accumulate to a small extent. and affected by the Winter Olympic Games, most coke and steel enterprises have limited production to varying degrees, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw coal has been weakened.

Basis: spot market price 2715, basis 403.5; spot Shengshui futures; too much

Inventory: 10.756 million tons in steel mills, 3.91 million tons in ports, 13.033 million tons in independent coke enterprises, 27.699 million tons in total sample inventory, 1.129 million tons less than last week.

Disk: 20th line up, price above 20th line; too much

Main position: net increase of main force of coking coal; too much

The demand for raw coal in coking steel enterprises is gradually weakening, and the supply of coking coal tends to be relaxed. Generally speaking, it is expected that the weak and stable operation of coking coal will be dominant in the short term. Operation of coking coal 2205v2400-2450 interval.

Ruida Futures: short-term long-term trading of coking coal is recommended

Overnight JM2205 contracts rose sharply. At present, the production of local mines is resuming one after another, and the normal production of large state-owned mines during the Spring Festival, but in the short term, individual areas are affected by rain and snow, and transportation is relatively tight. And there are few vehicles passing through the customs at Mengmei Port, and the overall import supplement is relatively limited. However, the overall performance of short-term demand is weak, coke steel enterprises basically maintain a state of production restrictions, or to a certain extent limit the price rebound space.

Technically, JM2205 contracts rose sharply, hour MACD indicators show red column expansion, pay attention to the lower moving average support. In operation, short-term too much trading, pay attention to risk control.

All in all, due to the holding of the Winter Olympic Games, the coking plant has made great efforts to limit production, and Shandong and Shanxi have limited production news. On the whole, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, coupled with the recent policy concern about thermal coal, coking coal prices may be weak and volatile in February. But from a medium-term point of view, the Australian coal gap + resumption season may support coking coal prices to rise again.

At 15:00 Beijing time, the main company of coking coal rose 7.60% to 2470 yuan / ton.